Experience the drama of the full tournament bracket in a one-off run.
Run thousands of simulations to calculate statistical probabilities.
| # | Grp | Team | Pts | GD | GF | Rank | Status | Match |
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| Team | Elo | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | 4th | 3rd | Final | 2nd | Winner |
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| Team | Tier | xT Score | Exp. Finish | Win% | SF% |
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| Confidence Level | Required (Pts | GD) |
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| Group | 3rd Qual % | Avg ELO | Gap 2nd-3rd | Gap 3rd-4th | Imbalance |
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Calculates the average win percentage of teams from one group against another.
| ID | Group | Teams (Placeholder) | Host City | Match ELO | ELO Diff | Win % - Draw % - Loss % |
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| Match | Host City | Top 5 vs Top 5 | Top 10 vs Top 10 | Top 15 vs Top 15 | Not Top 20 vs Not Top 20 | Messi OR Ronaldo | Messi AND Ronaldo | Most Likely Matchup | Best Pair Exp. ELO | Exp. Match Quality |
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The Big Bracket Theory is an ELO-based Monte Carlo simulator for the FIFA World Cup 2026. The simulator runs thousands of full tournament simulations - from the group stage through the knockout rounds , in order to estimate win probabilities, qualification chances, and expected tournament paths for each national team.
Match outcomes are generated using an ELO rating framework, combined with an empirical translation from ELO differences to expected goals (xG).
The simulator offers two complementary modes:
This project is designed as a statistical forecasting and exploration tool, not as a deterministic prediction or betting model.
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